September 2019 all adjusters were glued to the Weather Channel.
A massive category 5 hurricane was barreling through the Bahamas towards the United States. The storm felt like it would cover the entire state of Florida in devastation.
(if you haven’t allowed images you’ll want to on this email. I have a ton of charts and images that show you the data better than me telling you ever could) The news projections of the most damaging hurricane ever abounded. IA Firms and carriers called emergency meetings. Carriers ordered hundreds and thousands of adjusters from the IA Firms so they’d be staffed for what looked like to be the worst ever.
Individual independent adjusters drove from Nebraska, Texas, Indiana, the northeast, the Midwest spending thousands of dollars in gas and hotels, all to stage in the upper inland part of Florida. They were outside the landfall area, but close enough to drive in to start processing claims at a moments notice.
Problem is the claims never came.
Hurricane Dorian stalled over the Bahamas causing a true catastrophe for the islands, but the United States was spared. Hurricane Dorian skirted up the coast finally making landfall in North Carolina as a dying storm, but nothing like the terrifying monster it was in Florida only days before.
Thousands of adjusters staged in Florida and they only ended up with 5,764 claims and $19 million in insured losses from Hurricane Dorian. By catastrophe standards not much.
There was no damage. No claims. No deployments. No work.
All those individuals that had been staged lost out, spent all their own money. They were sent before a single claim had been filed.
I got so many calls of people crying, devastated, lost, confused. The industry had betrayed them. They had bet it all on the Adjuster Lottery, the catastrophic dream of independent adjusting and lost.
They didn’t just wait and get nothing… they paid to wait and got nothing.
Looking at the numbers you see Hurricane Dorian caused $1.98 billion dollars in damage. Surely that should be enough to get a bunch of new people deployed, right? Wrong, it didn’t and I wanted to know hwy.
So I decided to find out, what amount does it takes to get a new wave of adjusters work after a hurricane.
The Size and Category of the Hurricane Doesn’t Get You Work
Hurricanes are classified by categories.
This is determined by the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. That scale uses a maximum 1-minute sustained wind speed to rate the current strength of the storm.
While seeing a Category 4 or 5 hurricane makes our heart go pitter patter with possibility and fear, it doesn’t actually bring work to independent adjusters.
The weather channels and meteorologists are about ratings. Yes they help keep us safe, but they primarily are there to keep everyone’s attention. A big hurricane does just that. The news is great at making hurricanes look scary and for independent adjusters make us feel like work is right around the corner.
But, just like with the big category 5 Hurricane Dorian, a big hurricane doesn’t mean work.
The thing that decides if we get work or not isn’t wind speed, it’s the money.
Just because a storm is a category 4 or 5 hurricane doesn’t mean it’ll produce work on it’s own.
Hurricane Ike was a Category 4 Hurricane and caused $43 billion in damages, but that alone wasn’t what got the mass majority of independent adjusters to work… it was a combination of factors.
Claim Files vs Dollar Amounts
As I dug around the research what I was looking for is what gets an independent adjuster work, is it the size of the storm, the claim counts or the dollar amounts?
What was the best and easiest measurement for an adjuster to have a clue about how much opportunity there would be for them?
A claim file is one inspection, typically inspections are whats getting the masses deployed. Someone has to inspect the home, vehicle, or some kind of property to determine the extent of the damages so they can write an estimate for those damages. Then based on those damages and a few other factors like deductible a check is issued to the insured if it is a covered loss.
So SURELY, claim counts would tell me what I wanted to know. It is what demands an adjuster to be present.
What I found was this, 11,000 claims per billion dollars in damage.
That was across 19 storms with claim counts reported.
Of course there are exceptions, the 11,000 claim count rule works 85% of the time. The exceptions that stood out were,
– Hurricane Michael (Category 5): wiped Mexico Beach off the map and had .6 times the files predicted by the formula I mentioned. Basically weren’t as many structures there but the structures were expensive. Those claims tend to go to the more veteran crowd who can handle commercial claims etc.
– Dorian with only .27 of the claim counts compared to the damage costs.
Michael was a Category 5 that erased a town, and it still opened fewer files than its dollar figure predicted. There just were not that many buildings.
Now this is imperfect data, across state and nationwide claim counts, but it gives us a way to start seeing a storm and what I provides in terms of work.
The Number I’m Watching For Is $50 Billion in a Single Season
A US hurricane season needs to reach roughly $50 billion in total damage before insurance carriers and IA firms deploy new adjusters in mass.
That is the number I see in the data that puts a mass amount of new independent adjusters to work. Prior to that the work volume just isn’t there. Now is it a magic lever or perfect measurement, probably not, but my guess that’s when we’ll see mass deployments that actually result in work, not just staging or standby for new people. Actual dollar bills.
$50 billion is when the industry has run out of the experienced people. By rough math that is 500,000 claims at that point in the season. Before that line the staff adjusters or the veterans that are trusted by the IA Firms can typically float the work volume.
IA Firms don’t feel desperate enough to try out an unproven first time adjuster until that point.
Now this can happen with a massive storm, like Hurricane Katrina, or it can be 2-3 storms back to back that total more than $50 billion dollars in damage.
This is just my rough benchmark, not an industry rule. I’ve found dollar amounts are an easier measurement to find than claim counts and they often make projections of damages early in a storm. You can use it to listen for how much damage they anticipate to have an idea how deep they may deploy on the roster.
That Has Happened Nine Times Since Katrina
We’ve eclipsed $50 billion in hurricane season damages 9 times since hurricane Katrina.
You’ve heard many of these names even if you don’t know the years. My guess is if you’ve been deployed to a hurricane, your first one is on this list, when you were unproven and new.
I got my first hurricane 2012, Hurricane Sandy.
So How Long Do You Actually Have to Wait for Your Shot at Getting Deployed to a Hurricane?
It’s the question we all ask as independent adjusters.
“When will I get my shot?”
If you are waiting on a hurricane, here is the data.
9 out of 21 years hit the $50 billion dollar mark, that’s 43%. Average wait time… a year and a half. Sounds survivable.
But, hurricanes don’t arrive on a schedule. The weather does what the weather wants to do.
Someone who started waiting in 2014… waited 4 years. If it was early 2013 it’s almost a 5 year wait.
2005 – 2016 only saw $50 billion in damages 3 times in 12 seasons. Between 2017 – 2024 it clear it 6 out of 8 times. That’s the era that is raising the average up.
If you are hearing “Every two years there is a massive storm that gets almost anyone that wants it work.” They are basically quoting the good years.’ We’ve gone 600+ days without any real hurricane damages.
The landfall rate of hurricanes is the same going all the way back to 1851… the average? The United States has .6 major hurricane landfalls per year.
The truth is we don’t know how long we have to wait for the next one. 15% of the time new adjusters have to wait 3+ years to get their start.
The question is, how long are you willing to wait?
Why Two Storms Beat One Big One
While hurricanes may stay in the news for a couple weeks, the insurance clean up of the files takes months or years. Hurricane Ian was 95.7% closed two and a half years after landfall!
If multiple hurricane comes rolling in a three week period, it can’t be staffed by the same adjusters. They still have files to close. IA firms and carriers are stretched thin.
This is why often for new people, two decently destructive storms beat a huge catastrophic storm. The adjuster populace is spread thin across multiple locations for multiple storms and the IA Firms and carriers get deep into the lists of licensed adjusters.
Firms often have their 1st team, 2nd team, 3rd team, etc. but multiple storms gets through that in a hurry. A firm and carrier might be able to handle one storm, but two or three and your seeing everyone with a license get a shot.
Hurricane Ike tends to prove this. It was $43 billion dollars by itself, but Dolly and Gustave had hit prior to Ike. Smaller storms, but still adjusters working the claims. Ike hit and lots of people ended up deployed that wouldn’t have if those two smaller storms hadn’t already hit.
Even When A Busy Hurricane Season Clears, Most People Still Don’t Get Called
The catastrophic independent adjusting industry is built like a casino, it is a house advantage.
It only works by sheer volume of license adjusters being available to be thrown at the claims. Firms know that up to 50% of first time adjusters are cut and don’t make it. That means you have a coin flips chance that if you even get called you won’t get paid.
In 2025 there were 203,093 licensed adjusters in the state of Texas alone. That’s the sheer number of people I’m talking about.
This industry puts lots of people to work finds the ones that are already competent and can survive and lets the rest go. It is a numbers game.
I get why the firms and carriers do it. They have to be able to handle the claims when they arrive unscheduled and in mass. Crawford states that they have 50,000 field resources (i.e. Independent Adjusters) available… where do you sit on that list? At the top or somewhere near the bottom?
This philosophy doesn’t work for you. It takes that huge opportunity, your first shot and turns it into a trap. The storm then is checking whether you actually know how to work, but if you’ve never done the job how are you supposed to know how to work?
Most people think they’ll be trained on site, but so few succeed even if there are training and help rooms its gambling with your career and future. Many carriers have experience requirements that will prevent you from being even able to get those claims.
This is why I’m a proponent of starting in daily auto claims so you aren’t competing against 200,000+ adjusters that are eligible for deployment to Texas or Florida.
The Industry Has Thinned, This Might Be Good New for You
The last two years has been hard on the industry. 2025 produced zero landfall hurricanes. NOAA is predicting this is a below average season, a 75% chance of below average with an expectation of 0-2 major hurricanes.
Independent adjusters that were used to deployments and consistent work from IA Firms, have struggled and had to go get work in other industries. The IA Firms that employ them have had to gut much of the management and training structures that have been in place for a decade or longer.
All that to say this could be an opportunity for you.
I’ve spoken with major IA firms that want trained people that are ready to go regardless of experience. The key is TRAINED. Not ‘I attended an orientation’ or ‘I got a carrier certification’.
They mean you meet a contribution standard. You’ll actually help on the ground and not be trained.
Because the firms don’t have the training and management resources they once did to support lots of untrained IA’s. They also don’t have the veteran pool they once did so they are elevating trained and certified IA’s higher on their roster.
That is your opportunity. Whether its catastrophic or daily claims, the thinning of the industry means more potential opportunities for you
What I’d Do Instead
2025 had zero hurricanes make landfall. American still filed 31.6 million auto claims.
That’s 86,575 claims a day. If you look at all the claims produced by hurricane Ian, 800,000ish, that’s 9 days of standard auto.
Instead of waiting months or years for the next hurricane to even bring you a sliver of a shot, you could just do standard auto claims and know that in 9 days we’ll have experienced 800,000 auto claims.
Plus, in your local market you are likely competing against dozens of adjusters vs 200,000 who are all watching the weather channel waiting for a hurricane.
It’s putting the numbers back in your favor.
Then when a catastrophe comes you are already experienced. You will have relationships with companies that already trust you. You will shine when deployed and get longer and better opportunities because companies will know they can trust you.
It is a completely different approach than most people take to getting started as an independent adjuster, but the numbers are there, the claims are there, in your local market, every day.
How Long Are You Willing to Wait?
Now listen, I’m not saying hurricanes won’t come.
I know we will have another $50 billion season coming at some point.
I’m telling you it’s happened 9 times in the last 21 years and you could have to wait up to 5 years. And when it comes the seats are first offered to those that are already working.
Instead of playing the Adjuster Lottery hoping you get a golden ticket you could be taking action, getting work, making money and building relationships.
Action creates attraction.
The hurricane doesn’t have to be your business. The hurricane is just the bonus.
If you need help getting work with daily auto claims, our certification gets the 2-5 year experience requirements waived with 40+ companies both in daily and catastrophic claims.
If you are interested you can check out our EXP Free Career Path for Independent Adjusters.
Until next time, keep walking your path and claiming your life.
Your Guide, Chris Stanley
